Tourism Shocks and Dutch Disease in Island Micro-States: The Maldives’ Post-COVID Trap
Authors
Aishath Riyaz, Maldives National University, Faculty of Economics, Malé, Maldives ()Files
Key Information
Journal
Published in Vol. 5 No. 1 (2015) of Triple A Research Journal of Multidisciplinary.
Triple A Research Journal of Multidisciplinary (ISSN: 2636-5480) is an international journal published in English for scholars, practitioners, and students. The Journal welcomes original research articles, book reviews, commentaries, correspondence, review articles, technical notes, short communications, case study, books, thesis and dissertation relevant to its fields.
About the JournalAbstract
Using a structural VAR on quarterly data (2005-2023), we trace how a 92 % collapse in tourist arrivals triggered a 41 % real exchange-rate appreciation, crowding out tuna exports. Counterfactual simulations indicate that a sovereign wealth fund seeded at 8 % of tourism GDP could have sterilized 60 % of the shock. The paper provides a blueprint for tourism-dependent economies to decouple from FX volatility.
